UkraineAlert sources analysis and commentary from a wide-array of thought-leaders, politicians, experts, and activists from Ukraine and the global community. This report advocates for a US-India digital handshake to overcome substantive and institutional barriers in US-India digital economic cooperation. 2. to make tangled or twisted; snarl. Instead, U.S. leaders followed George Washington's advice to "steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world," a recommendation . As Beckley explains, in most conflicts, only a few allies were directly threatened and demanded US intervention. US Department of State, Joint Statement on Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) 2021, Press Release, Office of the Spokesperson, September 16, 2021. 30 (February 2000), Jamestown Foundation (defunct publication), https://jamestown.org/program/russia-and-north-korea-sign-friendship-treaty/. The United States is also reinforcing its defense cooperation with Australia, and both countries now agree that their alliance is also valid for defending against cyberattacks.41US Department of State, Joint Statement on Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) 2021, Press Release, Office of the Spokesperson, September 16, 2021, https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-australia-u-s-ministerial-consultations-ausmin-2021/; ANZUS 2.0.: Cybersecurity and Australia-US Relations, Special Report, Australian Security Policy Institute, April 2012, https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/161646/SR46_cybersecurity_v2.pdf. As alliances are created or reinforced, adversaries react and probe their limits. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) considers that its characterization requires a relatively large scale . The CSTO created its own Collective Rapid Reaction Forces in 2009.52CSTO Joint Staff, Collective Rapid Reaction Forces of the CSTO, https://jscsto.odkb-csto.org/en/voennaya-sostavlyauschaya-odkb/ksorodkb.php. Entangling Alliances. In case of a conflict in East Asia, the probability that allies would be directly pulled into combat operations is low (except perhaps for the case of South Korea, due to the aforementioned 1953 commitments by sixteen countries to defend the peace on the peninsula). The Balkan peninsula was that of great importance due to its territorial and economic . After the 1991 Gulf War, France signed agreements that include defense clauses with Kuwait (1992), Qatar (1994, 1998), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (1995, 2009). There is solid academic evidence that such alliances do reduce the risk of war.84Jesse C. Johnson and Brett Ashley Leeds, Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace?,Foreign Policy Analysis7, no. If anything, the United States occasionally appears hesitant in upholding its own red lines, to the point that some have wondered whether its nonintervention in Syria in 2013 might have encouraged Russian and Chinese aggressiveness.114See Jeffrey Lewis and Bruno Tertrais, Beyond The Red Line: The United States, France, and Chemical Weapons in the Syrian War, 2013-2018,Recherches & Documentsno. Importantly, Alliance members have also made it clear that beyond terrorism, other forms of nontraditional aggression, in cyberspace (2014) as well as to, from, or within outer space (2021) could qualify as an armed attack and trigger Article 5.29Wales Summit Declaration Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the North Atlantic Council in Wales, September 5, 2014, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm; and Brussels Summit Communiqu Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the North Atlantic Council in Brussels, June 14, 2021, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm. the defense-alliance trio known as AUKUS, or coalitions for given operations such as those in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya. Why is that so? In case of a near-simultaneous Russian attack in Europe, the US Army could still play a major roleit would not be heavily involved in most Asian contingenciesbut the [US Navy] and [Air Force] would largely play support and coordinative roles.121Robert Farley, Can the US Military Still Fight a Two Front War and Win?,National Interest, January 22, 2021, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/canus-military-still-fight-two-front-war-and-win-176799. This was for the first time confirmed at the presidential level by Barack Obama, orally, in 2014, and then more solemnly by Donald Trump, in writing, in 2017.39Brian Victoria, The Shifting US Position over the Senkaku Islands, East Asia Forum, November 13, 2020, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/13/theshifting-us-position-over-the-senkaku-islands/. Qatar has since joined and the total number (including Taiwan) is now 20.61US Department of State, Major Non-NATO Ally Status, Fact Sheet Washington is also stepping up its cooperation with non-NATO Northern European countries.62Aaron Mehta, Finland, Sweden, and US Sign Trilateral Agreement, with Eye on Increased Exercises,Defense News, May 9, 2018, https://www.defensenews.com/training-sim/2018/05/09/finland-sweden-and-us-sign-trilateral-agreement-with-eye-on-increased-exercises/. As an example, the Dual Alliance of 1879 committed Austria-Hungary and Germany to come down on Russia with the whole war strength of their empires. See The Dual Alliance Between Austria-Hungary and Germany October 7, 1879, The Avalon Project: Documents in Law, History and Diplomacy, Yale Law School, Lillian Goldman Law Library (website), accessed May 30, 2022. Alliances Quotes. Dec 7, 2021, By NATO has also proven flexible enough to lead major operations with nonmembers, such as in Kosovo, Afghanistan, or Libya. They are also less likely in themselves to produce a pushback from other countries (the security dilemma), especially when they adopt unilateral confidence-building measures aimed at reassuring a potential adversary that they have no aggressive designs against it. The Warsaw Pact was disbanded in 1991. Mira Rapp-Hooper, Absolute Alliances: Extended Deterrence in International Politics (doctoral dissertation, Columbia University, 2015), Columbia University Academic Commons (website), Breet Ashley Leeds et al., Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises,. In Europe, during the nineteenth century and the early part of the twentieth century, military alliances in particular were prevalent, as countries sought to defend . See Breffni ORourke, Russia, Armenia Sign Extended Defense Pact, Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty, August 19, 2010. 10. Two timelier questions stand out at this particular moment in world history: is this thickening web of alliances good or bad for global stability, and does it increase or decrease the risk of war? In aggregate, the . Bruno Tertrais. Belarus Referendum Approves Proposal to Renounce Nonnuclear Status, Reuters, February 27, 2022. No threat to your Kingdom could occur which would not be a matter of immediate concern to the United States. See President Truman to King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud of Saudi Arabia, 711.56386A/103050. The comparison of monomeric and dimeric diphtheria toxin (DT) reveals a mode for protein association which we call domain swapping. Alliances and partnerships produce stability when they reflect realities and interests. While the United States has the largest number of inherited security commitments that persist to this day, there are several others worth considering. See Deployments Cyprus, British Army (website), https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/cyprus/. Measured in terms of intensity of relations, in the 2010s Ukraine became the number one NATO partner by a large margin.32Branislav Miko, NATO between Exclusivity and Inclusivity: Measuring NATOs Partnerships, Czech Journal of International Relations 56, no. The UK signed its own defense agreement with the UAE in 1996; the UK governments comments in Parliament suggest that London is committed to deterring threats or preventing aggression against the Emirates, and, in the event of such aggression taking place, to implementing the joint military plans which are judged appropriate for the defense of the UAE.57UK Parliament, Co-operation Accord (United Arab Emirates), Hansard (official report of debates) 286, Commons: November 28, 1996, Written Answers, Defense, https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/1996-11-28/debates/becc7cbf-c160-4d16-95f4-b2fbf024a1ef/Co-OperationAccord(UnitedArabEmirates). How did Alliance systems contribute to the outbreak of World War I? . US Department of State, Major Non-NATO Ally Status, Fact Sheet, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, January 20, 2021, Vali Kaleji, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Is No New Warsaw Pact or Eastern NATO,. Using Quad to Build Indo-Pacific NATO,, Ash Jain, Matthew Kroenig, and Jonas Parello-Plesner, Atlantic Council US-India Digital Economy Task Force. As early as 1991, NATO allies declared that the consolidation and preservation throughout the continent of democratic societies and their freedom from any form of coercion or intimidation are therefore of direct and material concern to us.31Partnership with the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Statement, North Atlantic Council Meeting in Ministerial Session in Copenhagen, June 6-7, 1991, NATO Online Library, https://www.nato.int/docu/comm/49-95/c910607d.htm. New Atlanticist Russia and China have few military allies (only one formal ally for Beijing: North Korea). UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 (1974) defines it as the use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations.93Elizabeth Wilmhurst, Definition of Aggression, General Assembly Resolution 3314 (XXIX) of December 14, 1974, Audiovisual Library of International Law, https://legal.un.org/avl/ha/da/da.html. i. The alliances did not entangle us; either life itself did it, or we did it to ourselves. Therefore, that information is unavailable for most Encyclopedia.com content. See Clara Sophie Cramer and Ulrike Franke, eds., Ambiguous Alliance: Neutrality, Opt-Outs, and European Defence, Essay Collection, European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2021, https://ecfr.eu/publication/ambiguous-alliance-neutrality-opt-outs-and-european-defence/.). ii. Since the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Seas entered into force in 1994, many states have made irreconcilable claims regarding their territorial waters as well as economic exclusion zones (EEZs, which are not part of national territories but where national forces are often present). All this suggests that allies do not get embroiled by mere virtue of a text or declaration: going to war would remain a political decision. The most egregious cases of U.S. overreach, however, have stemmed not from entangling alliances, but from the penchant of American leaders to define national interests expansively, to overestimate . A large literature assumes that alliances entangle the United States in military conflicts that it might otherwise avoid. Causes of WW1: Franco-Russian Alliance. [ii] South East Asia Collective Defense Treaty (1954). Beginning in the late 19th century, the social unrest in the Balkan States became the focal point of many European powers. Amanda Macias and Tucker Higgins, Trump Says Defending Tiny NATO Ally Montenegro Could Result in World War III, CNBC, June 18, 2018, Emmanuel Macron Warns Europe: NATO Is Becoming Brain-dead,. This shift was confirmed by the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review.46US Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report, 2010, https://dod.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/NPR/; and US Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review, 2018, https://dod.defense.gov/News/SpecialReports/2018NuclearPostureReview.aspx. Would the European Union be ready to go to war against Ankara, especially its neutral and nonaligned members?124Five EU countries have, to various degrees, a neutral or nonaligned status and Denmark had an opt-out policy which it will abolish on July 1 following a referendum vote. Refer to each styles convention regarding the best way to format page numbers and retrieval dates. Composed of a bunch of puppet regimes in eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact was an honorable sentry for Moscow's paranoid central planners. Since 1945, alliances have lasted fourteen years on average, compared with eight years before then.75Breet Ashley Leeds et al., Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises,The Journal of Conflict Resolution44, no. They are often seen as quasi-alliances even though they do not entail any defense commitments. The line should be clear enough to deter, but not to the point of ensuring the adversary he will not suffer from consequences if he acts below the line. More recently, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Ukraine are seeking to form a new security and defense partnership.64Matthias Williams and Gabriela Baczynska, Britain, Poland, and Ukraine in Cooperation Talks over Russian Threat, Reuters, February 1, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-poland-ukraine-preparing-trilateral-security-pact-kyiv-says-2022-02-01/. Some legacy defense commitments (e.g., US-Liberia agreements of 1942 and 1943) are not mentioned here. Mounting tension between the United States and the Soviet Union, and war in Vietnam determined U.S. foreign policy in the 1960s. David Brunnstrom, US Position on Taiwan Unchanged Despite Biden Comment: Official, Reuters, August 20, 2021. Author Jason W. Davidson examines these alliances to shed light on their nature and what they reveal about the evolution of American power. The United States has five dozen allies, and Russia has five. The Alliance also has developed a web of security partnerships with many countries: fifteen partners for peace, seven members of the Mediterranean Dialogue, four Gulf countries of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, as well as nine partners across the globe. Sweden, Finland, Ukraine, and Georgia have joined the NATO Response Force.30Sweden to Join NATO Response Force and Exercise Steadfast Jazz, NATO, Newsroom (website), October 14, 2013, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/ news_104086.htm. Although it may be necessary to cooperate with friendly governments, there is no reason to become further enmeshed in entangling alliances abroad. In 1914, Dominic Tierney argues, the war began, not as a result of chain-ganging, but because of coordinated aggression by Germany and Austria-Hungary. In 2022, the CSTO intervened to help Kazakhstan, which claimed to face a terrorist aggression, suggesting that it may become a sort of Warsaw Pact-light organization. The Washington Doctrine of Unstable Alliances, sometimes called the caution against entangling alliances, was an early realist guide for US foreign policy and the nation's interaction with others. This is also true for some bilateral defense commitments such as the Franco-Greek one of 2021, which includes the condition that both parties must jointly find that an armed aggression has taken place. Wales Summit Declaration Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the North Atlantic Council in Wales, September 5, 2014. Alliances are regularly described as being in crisis. Yet as Alexander Lanoszka puts it, dysfunction is a permanent feature of alliance politics, not a temporary bug.25Lanoszka,Military Alliances, 193. 2 (April-June 2018), https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168018779697. It is harder to imagine that Russia could threaten Asian allies of the United States for their support of Europe than in the China or North Korean case. Entrapment is a form of undesirable entanglement. See Tongfi Kim, Why Alliances Entangle but Seldom Entrap States,, Dominic Tierney, Does Chain-Ganging Cause the Outbreak of War?,, Choong-Nam Kang, Capability Revisited: Allys Capability and Dispute Initiation,, Macias and Higgins, Trump Says Defending Tiny NATO Ally Montenegro., Brett V. Benson et al., Ally Provocateur: Why Allies Do Not Always Behave,. 2 (2017), https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2928&context=parameters. Pakistan withdrew from the (now defunct) South-East Asia Treaty Organization, or SEATO, in 1968 and no longer appears on the list of Manila-Pact-related US defense commitments. 4 (2000), https://www.jstor.org/stable/174649. This, in turn, facilitates economic cooperation and growththe best examples being the recovery of Europe, Japan, and South Korea after 1945. In 2005, the 54 members of the African Union signed an all-African Nonaggression and Common Defense Pact. Even if overall, the current order provides more stability than it is given credit for, its all too easy to imagine scenarios that could lead to real problems for the existing webs of alliances. The government chooses its foreign affairs policy to safeguard the interests of the nation and its citizens. Joe Biden, Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism, Remarks by then-Vice President Biden, Copenhagen Democracy Summit, June 22, 2018, Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, To Smoothen Ruffled Feathers in Asia, India Terms QUAD a Nonmilitary Alliance,. Love is the only force capable of transforming an enemy into a friend. In sum, military ties are thickening globally. For militia as well as cyberattacks, international law provides the useful concept of cumulative effects. If EU members hesitated in triggering Article 42.7, France would presumably come to the rescue of Greece, but what if the war escalated? US Arms Sales Since 9/11,. Likewise, Seoul and Washington did not overreact when North Korea attacked a South Korean ship and shelled islands in 2010; the CSTO did not move when a missile fell on Armenian territory in 2020; and Iranian attacks on Saudi territory over the past decade elicited fairly measured US reactions. As a result of his Neutrality Proclamation of 1793, the U.S. dissolved its alliance with France. In my opinion, NATO is the definition of an entangling alliance. Jefferson said that one of the "essential principles of our government" is that of "peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none." Obviously he understood that always staying neutral as Paulites and . . 6 (2018), Fondation pour la Recherche Stratgique, https://www.frstrategie.org/web/documents/publications/recherches-etdocuments/2018/201806.pdf. Beckley searches for cases of MIDs "in which alliances caused U.S . US attitudes have also led to consolidation of military ties between its own allies and friends, either to diversify security portfolios or to hedge against US retrenchmentinternal hedging, given that all the actors belong to the same US-led alliance system. definition: making alliances with countries. NATOs Article 5 was invoked for the first time ever. A few years ago, a scholar calculated that US alliances covered some 25 percent of the worlds population and 75 percent of its gross domestic product.77Michael Beckley, The Myth of Entangling Alliances: Reassessing the Security Risks of US Pacts,International Security39, no. In addition to formal agreements, a slew of defense cooperation groupings have also emerged in recent decades. Modern alliances are defensive in nature and, as a result, are more resilient and durable than aggression-oriented pacts of the distant past. Recent events show that NATO has been cautious in invoking Article 5: it was not done in 2007 when massive distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks of Russian origin affected Estonia, or when a Turkish aircraft was downed by Syria over international waters in 2012. What does entangling mean? 3 (2011): 350-377, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2011.599201. 2020-35, December 2020, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3748392. Michael Beckley is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Tufts University. Nationalism in the Balkans helped contribute to the outbreak of WWI. The treaty of mutual cooperation and security between Japan and the United States, January 19, 1960. The terms of this support are outlined in the alliance document. Leaving aside the specific case of the Warsaw Pact, which was an instrument to control its members, these interests are never one-sided, and allies clearly see an upside to continued cooperation. Separately, UK forces participate in UN peacekeeping forces on the island. Today, the US administration is expanding and consolidating these links seeking to build a latticework of alliances and partnerships globally that are fit for purpose for the twenty-first century.79A Conversation With Jake Sullivan, Council on Foreign Relations, December 17, 2021, https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-jake-sullivan. Carl Bildt et al.,Survey: Western Public Backs Stronger Support for Ukraine against Russia, Atlantic Council, January 25, 2022, CSTO Joint Staff, Collective Rapid Reaction Forces of the CSTO,. Probably the most influential event that . Still, drawing red linesthe essence of security guaranteesis a form of art.95On the notion of red lines, see Bruno Tertrais, The Diplomacy of Red Lines,Recherches & Documents, no. Ayaz Gul, Pakistans PM Urges US, China to Reduce Tensions, Voice of America, December 9, 2021, China Believes That America Is Forging Alliances to Stop Its Rise,, Artyom Lukin, JAUKUS and the Emerging Clash of Alliances in the Pacific,, Robert Farley, Can the US Military Still Fight a Two Front War and Win?,. After focusing on peace support and counterterrorism operations for twenty years, NATO renewed its focus on collective defense vis--vis Russia, and is currently reviewing what the rise of China means for the Alliances security. According to the policy, the United States should consider external alliances as temporary measures of convenience and freely abandon them when national interest dictates. There was a variety of causes that influenced the beginning of World War I, but the primary causes consisted of three major crisis areas which eventually led to the creation of World War I: Balkan nationalism, entangling alliances, and militarism as welll as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The official list of formal US collective defense commitments includes treaties signed with countries of the American continents (Rio, 1947), Europe and Canada (Washington, 1949), Korea (1951), Australia and New Zealand (1951), the Philippines (1951), Japan (1951, 1960), and members of the largely forgotten but still valid South-East Asia Treaty (the Manila Pact of 1954).16US Department of State, US Collective Defense Arrangements, (Treaty Affairs, Archived Content 2009-2017, https://2009-2017.state.gov/s/l/treaty/ collectivedefense/index.htm). Ash Jain, Matthew Kroenig, and Jonas Parello-Plesner. A few years later, in 2011, Turkey and Azerbaijan concluded a defense pact.59Shahin Abbasov, Azerbaijan-Turkey Military Pact Signals Impatience With Minsk Talks: Analysts, Eurasianet (news site), January 18, 2011, https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijan-turkey-military-pact-signals-impatience-with-minsk-talks-analysts. Good alliances are made of strong, capable partners. Reputation does matter when explaining choices made by US administrations.110Frank P. Harvey and John Mitton,Fighting for Credibility. Separately, the United States is also bolstering its defense cooperation with key NATO allies in the South (Greece) and in the North (Norway, Denmark).33Humeyra Pamuk, Blinken Says Renewed US-Greece Defense Deal to Advance Stability in Eastern Mediterranean, Reuters, October 15, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-says-renewed-defence-deal-with-us-protect-sovereignty-both-2021-10-14/; US Department of State, US-Norway Supplementary Cooperation Agreement, April 16, 2021, https://www.state.gov/u-s-norway-supplementary-defense-cooperation-agreement/; and Denmark Talks on Hosting US troops Not Triggered by Ukraine Crisis: PM, Reuters, January 10, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/denmark-us-begintalks-new-defence-agreement-2022-02-10/. US alliances were successfully tested in 2001. Using Quad to Build Indo-Pacific NATO,Hindu, October 13, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/news/ international/china-fm-calls-us-indo-pacific-strategy-a-huge-security-risk/article32844084.ece. Expert Alexander Lanoszka calls the South-East Asia Treaty a zombified alliance. See Alexander Lanoszka,Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century(London: Polity Press, 2022), 176. Collective Security Treaty, Collective Security Treaty Organization. Our programs and centers deliver in-depth, highly relevant issue briefs and reports that break new ground, shift opinions, and set agendas on public policy, with a focus on advancing debates by integrating foundational research and analysis with concrete policy solutions. Author Jason W. Davidson examines these alliances to shed light on their nature and what they reveal about the evolution of American power. We call domain swapping ( defunct publication ), https: //www.frstrategie.org/web/documents/publications/recherches-etdocuments/2018/201806.pdf did. Collective Defense Treaty ( 1954 ) the distant past of his Neutrality Proclamation 1793... 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